Thursday, May 14, 2009

Exploiting Depth @ WR

Tom Silverstein reminds us in his May 13th article that great QBs must come through on final drives and win close games. We all remember how BLF could do this or throw a game ending pick. But it was his ability to run the 2-minute drill that made him great.

And so we are reminded that it's not JUST the defense that needs to improve if the Packers are going back to the playoffs. That's got to worry anyone familiar with the sophomore QB slump. But when you think about the Packer WR, you have to have confidence. Nobody is talking about the WRs. Occasionally, someone whispers Donald Driver is 47 or something like that. But look at him. Drivers' body fat levels seem to be genetic wonder plus impeccable conditioning.

Greg Jennings didn't have a sophomore slump. He was 13th among WRs in catches. Driver was 20th. Rodgers will need to hit them in stride as Favre was doing in the second half of 2006 and all of 2007. This is the key to the Packer offense. In 2007 Driver ranked #14 and Jennings #42. Not like N.E. in 2007 with Welker tied for #1 and Moss #9, but things weigh out better when you add in the #3 & #4 receivers.

The image of James Jones' helmet flying off last season reminds us it's a dangerous position. Some QBs have a knack for getting their WRs splattered. That's a real intangible, but I hope to see fewer Packer WRs creamed, especially on slant routes this year.

We can also hope the Packers' offense is tweaked to involve James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Ruvell Martin. When you consider the quality of nickle and dime backs in the NFL vs. starting CBs, you have to see a golden path to getting Jennings and Driver through to the playoffs.

It would make some sense to pull the plug on Jennings "contract year" and sign him to an extension now like they did with Donald Driver a few years back. I could really care less about Jennings' individual stats this regular season. Playoff teams will have capable nickle & dime backs, and Jennings & Driver will be needed at full-strenght.

Let's ask a few Packer media folks about how the Packers might exploit their depth at WR this season and see what they say.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Favre Anti-Magic

"Nobody will tell me the Favre drama did not factor into the Packers' season last year. The drama in training camp drained those guys and completely screwed up a weeks worth of valuable training camp practice time. You could see it in their faces and how they worked."
-Greg Bedard J/S Packer Blog May 8, 2009

We are often told how little difference there is between a lot of NFL teams. Chemistry and fortunate cause some average teams to make the playoffs and others to lose close games and miss. A team can have a double dose of bad luck two years in a row, but Bedard acknowledges the Favre whammy set a bad tone for last year. As a devote Packer fan and Favre fan, I have to go back to the pre-Wolf era to remember being so ambivalent towards the Packers as I was early last year.

I remember reading hundreds of message board posts from Packer fans. Only the biggest Pollyanna's were predicting a record similar to 13-3. I don't know if the whammy can work again if Favre is a Viking. I suppose it could if the Vikings win the first game vs. the Packers and take an early lead in the division.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Ted Thompson: Neither Hero Nor Villan

Ted Thompson is neither hero nor villain. He is displaying the same measured reaction to the 2008 6-10 season as he did the 2006 8-8 season. The answer then wasn't Randy Moss, but Greg Jennings. He didn't mess with Favre then either when he might have.

I about melted down on draft day when I woke up to see McGinn projecting WR Michael Crabtree. Was the "best available athlete" doctrine going to role over team chemistry and balance? I'm pretty sure a Crabtree selection would have led to continued defensive woes and a premature departure for Jennings and/or Driver with scant compensation.

We are expecting too much of our two first round rookies, I think. That's kind of inevitable though, isn't it? But beyond that, why did I assume Ted Thompson was unconcerned about the state of the defensive line. I accused him of being content with three starters and nothing behind them but street free agents.

I was wrong. I am sorry. But Ted has sometimes failed to address weaknesses for a year in the past. Colin Cole and Justin Harrell failed to replace Corey Williams last year. We are still talking about Wahle and Rivera at Guard and the running game hasn't been a sustained force since Ahman Green's heyday.

But I can not accuse Ted Thompson of ignoring the DTs or LBs or Gs. He may be a cold fish, but he and his crew are not impractical. He may think longer term and allow a weakness to persist more than one season. But the Packers are not governed by inflexible principles or vanity. They have been cautious and cerebral in drafting. They try to hang on to good players like Aaron Kampman even when they change defensive schemes.

We can hope for above average 2009 season because of our strong WRs and a QB who has shown he can throw like an NFL QB. There could be a sophomore jinx for Aaron Rodgers, but the team could battle through the rough spots, if the defense can improve.

Fate of the 2009 season may be more determined by how good the Bears and Vikings are. The Packers will be competitive barring disaster. The bigger variable may be the level of competition. Any thoughts about the Vikings or the Bears?

The Ghost of Ice Bowl 1.5

So just after the draft up pops old Brett to menace Ted Thompson and cause a minor aftershock to last summer's Cheese War. Bedard points out that Favre and ESPN are pretty much business partners by now. Brett Favre doesn't talk to the Wisconsin media, he talks to ESPN.

So has the national branding of Brett begun? How much is this grudge against Ted Thompson showmanship casting Favre as the star who loved the game so and would not go gladly into that good night?

Favre as a Viking right now is very attractive for the Vikings. He's got Bevell. He's got a great running back and a strong defense. But his WR would be 2007 1st round disappointment Sidney Rice and Bear castoffs Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade. Last year the Vikings passing attack was #25 in the NFL just behind the Lions. And Favre in a dome? I know cold weather games have become a problem for old Brett, but is he now going to start playing well in domes?

In 2007, Farve wasn't magic by himself. Jennings, Driver, along with alternative targets James Jones, Ruvell Martin, Koren Robinson, and Donald Lee all contributed to the #2 passing attack in the league. So could the Vikings with Favre go far? Could Favre bring them up to an average passing attack that would gain an additional edge because of the Adrian Peterson threat? It's conceivable enough to give you nightmares. But it's not probable.

With Favre the Vikings could make the playoffs and when you do that anything can happen. But we Packer fans have been disappointed enough times by teams with clear weaknesses. In 2001, the Packer defense couldn't get off the field and the Packer running game couldn't take any heat off Favre who threw six picks vs. the Rams.

In 2002, the Packers got Vicked by the Falcons. In 2003, the Pack when down on 4th & 26. They fizzed in the Wildcard vs. the Vikings in 2004, before losing Walker & Green and 2005. Those were some good Packer teams led by Favre. There were a few years Green was as effective as Peterson is today.

But what if Favre did get the Vikings deep in the playoffs? I wanted nothing more than for him to get another SB ring with the Packers. The specter of having that occur with Favre and the Vikings is something I'd rather not think about. Fear is never rational.

Last year I could think about the day when Ted Thompson is no longer GM and Brett Favre comes back to Lambeau to have his number retired. This storybook franchise and its fans and Brett Favre and his crazy clan have a lot to celebrate together. Now it seems like that day is a lot farther off.

For those of us feeling collaterally damaged by Favre's dalliance with the Vikings, it is important to remember that time passes quickly in the NFL and this too shall pass, just like the Packers' offense last year which slipped from #2 to #8 in the league in total yardage by air.

I still think Ted Thompson will historically bear some fault for not developing a warmer relationship with Brett and his brood. The unexpected 2007 magic merit ted some warmth in January & February 2008. Losses like the one to the Giants at home can haunt a team beyond the memory of players & coaches involved. Let's ask a Cleveland Browns fan about haunted football teams. I'll post his reply if it's printable.