In the last 10 NFL drafts, the average draft position of the first defensive tackle was 9.1. B.J. Raji was universially proclaimed the best defensive tackle in the draft, so the Packers did not "reach" according to this metric.
In the last 10 NFL drafts, 19 defensive tackles have been selected in the first 16 picks. Let's give their career a label:
Pro Bowler
Starter
Journeyman
Bust
Too Early to Say (1998 picks)
This is nominative since you could consider anything less than a starter a bust when taking with a top 16 pick, but since the there was a discernable difference, I have made this distinction between a player who contributes and one who doesn't.
Pro Bowlers (25%)
Tommie Harris
John Henderson
Richard Seymour
Corey Simon
Starters (37%):
Amobi Okoye
Adam Carriker
Haloti Ngata
Brodrick Bunkley
Travis Johnson
Dewayne Robertson
Anthony McFarland
Journeymen (19%):
Jimmy Kennedy
Ryan Sims
Gerard Warren
Busts (19%)
Justin Harrell
Johnathan Sullivan
Wendell Bryant
Too Early to Say (2):
Glenn Dorsey
Sedrick Ellis
So there is a 38% chance B.J. Raji will stink, a 25% chance he will be great, and a 37% chance he will be ok. I think he will fall into the starter catagory and at this key position in the defense that might be enough to help the Packers. Hopefully, his career will be long like Anthony McFarland's and will spend it in Green & Gold.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Front Seven Polka Time!
Front Seven Polka Time!
Roll out the Barrel
Raji and Matthews will stop the run
Roll out the Barrel
Playing the Packers just got less fun
First, second, and third downs
Opponents have something to fear
Because now they are going backwards
Finally some help is here!
Roll out another
Ted Thompson traded up everyone!
Roll out this defense
It's our day in the sun
Boom, down go their blockers
Sideline to sideline we cheer
Now we have a defense
And two guys who could tackle a deer!
Now tuning in to WTKM for Polka Party!
Roll out the Barrel
Raji and Matthews will stop the run
Roll out the Barrel
Playing the Packers just got less fun
First, second, and third downs
Opponents have something to fear
Because now they are going backwards
Finally some help is here!
Roll out another
Ted Thompson traded up everyone!
Roll out this defense
It's our day in the sun
Boom, down go their blockers
Sideline to sideline we cheer
Now we have a defense
And two guys who could tackle a deer!
Now tuning in to WTKM for Polka Party!
Packers Bolster D-Line with Raji!!!
My fears were unwarranted. The Packers added vital depth to it's defensive line by drafting Boston College's B.J. Raji with the ninth pick of the draft. Raji won't have to play right away, but he will need to be ready when the almost inevitable injuries occur.
This is a needed moral boost for those who believe that games are often won and lost in the trenches. It is encouraging to see Ted Thompson acknowledge the dire situation and address it head on. He has acknowledged that Justin Harrell shouldn't be counted on and isn't a nose tackle anyway.
Watching the tape on youtube is difficult because it's so jerky, but it's apparent that on the college level B.J. Raji can overpower offensive lineman. Part of his power is explosiveness and ability to find the ball carrier. On some plays all you can see is a scrum and a pile short of the line of scrimmage with Raji on top of the ball-carrier. This is very good.
This is a needed moral boost for those who believe that games are often won and lost in the trenches. It is encouraging to see Ted Thompson acknowledge the dire situation and address it head on. He has acknowledged that Justin Harrell shouldn't be counted on and isn't a nose tackle anyway.
Watching the tape on youtube is difficult because it's so jerky, but it's apparent that on the college level B.J. Raji can overpower offensive lineman. Part of his power is explosiveness and ability to find the ball carrier. On some plays all you can see is a scrum and a pile short of the line of scrimmage with Raji on top of the ball-carrier. This is very good.
Daily Paper Football Beat Writers Survey Says...
3 for Tyson Jackson
2 for Brian Oropko and Malcolm Jenkins
Any of those would seem to be helpful. Even if they take WR Michael Crabtree, anything less than a DT and a DE in rounds 1-3, will be an admission that either:
a. The Packers' current defensive philosophy is not to contest the line of scrimmage but make a tackle on running plays within five yards of the line of scrimmage. On passing plays, the philosophy is to assume that FA stumble bums will at least occupy a blocker and speedy linebackers will create pressure on the QB. But when a team can average five years per carry, why do their opponents even need to pass?
b. Ted Thompson is delusional in his hopes that Jolly will be available and Jenkins and Pickett won't get sidelined, dinged-up to the point of ineffectiveness, or ever tire. The case that Thompson thinks Mike Montgomery is anything but a liability vs. the run and a non-factor vs. the pass is already pretty clear. Notice I have not even mentioned the ultimate delusion, that J.H. guy actually contributing?
Now are we ready to bang our heads with our draft boards? It's looking more and more like a "crabby" day.
2 for Brian Oropko and Malcolm Jenkins
Any of those would seem to be helpful. Even if they take WR Michael Crabtree, anything less than a DT and a DE in rounds 1-3, will be an admission that either:
a. The Packers' current defensive philosophy is not to contest the line of scrimmage but make a tackle on running plays within five yards of the line of scrimmage. On passing plays, the philosophy is to assume that FA stumble bums will at least occupy a blocker and speedy linebackers will create pressure on the QB. But when a team can average five years per carry, why do their opponents even need to pass?
b. Ted Thompson is delusional in his hopes that Jolly will be available and Jenkins and Pickett won't get sidelined, dinged-up to the point of ineffectiveness, or ever tire. The case that Thompson thinks Mike Montgomery is anything but a liability vs. the run and a non-factor vs. the pass is already pretty clear. Notice I have not even mentioned the ultimate delusion, that J.H. guy actually contributing?
Now are we ready to bang our heads with our draft boards? It's looking more and more like a "crabby" day.
Joyful Rite of Spring Turns Sour
The NFL draft springs hope eternal, but new reports in that the Cleveland Browns will pass on "can't miss" WR Michael Crabtree. This probably leaves him to the Packers. No B.J. Raji, no Tyson Jackson, no help for the undersized undermanned defensive front. Just play the "Justin Harrell Polka" one more time.
The selection of Crabtree, who according to Bob McGinn left unfavorable impressions on visits this month to Cleveland, St. Louis and Oakland, would lead to the premature departure of 34 year old lionheart Donald Driver and contentious contact negations with Greg Jennings.
This Crabtree scenario will have some fans tuning out, and others cheering for Thompson to trade down. Is Bob McGinn in a state of depression? I know I am. Why did TT pick Jordy Nelson last year and James Jones the year before? Is Ruvell Martin so undervalued that they would cut him? The Bears will grab him in a second! The guy is 6'5, catches everything thrown to him, and blocks!
The state of the Packers defensive line is approaching that of complete break down. When a team can't even contest the line of scrimmage they are looking at 4-12 season or worse. Alfred Malone? Anthony Toribio? Fred Bledsoe? These guys are next on the depth chart - three unrestricted free agents!
Defensive linemen get injured and tired to the point of ineffectiveness when on the field too long. Last year the Lions gave up 2754 yards on the ground for a 5.1 per carry average. The Raiders where next worst with 2555 and 4.7. The Packers ranked 26th in stopping the run giving up 2,105 yards for a 4.6 average, so they are already not far behind.
Sure Thompson could address DL, LB, and OT with other high picks, but I fear he will take a punter and a swarm of 250 lbs speed-rushers instead. Maybe we should all just go back to bed?
The selection of Crabtree, who according to Bob McGinn left unfavorable impressions on visits this month to Cleveland, St. Louis and Oakland, would lead to the premature departure of 34 year old lionheart Donald Driver and contentious contact negations with Greg Jennings.
This Crabtree scenario will have some fans tuning out, and others cheering for Thompson to trade down. Is Bob McGinn in a state of depression? I know I am. Why did TT pick Jordy Nelson last year and James Jones the year before? Is Ruvell Martin so undervalued that they would cut him? The Bears will grab him in a second! The guy is 6'5, catches everything thrown to him, and blocks!
The state of the Packers defensive line is approaching that of complete break down. When a team can't even contest the line of scrimmage they are looking at 4-12 season or worse. Alfred Malone? Anthony Toribio? Fred Bledsoe? These guys are next on the depth chart - three unrestricted free agents!
Defensive linemen get injured and tired to the point of ineffectiveness when on the field too long. Last year the Lions gave up 2754 yards on the ground for a 5.1 per carry average. The Raiders where next worst with 2555 and 4.7. The Packers ranked 26th in stopping the run giving up 2,105 yards for a 4.6 average, so they are already not far behind.
Sure Thompson could address DL, LB, and OT with other high picks, but I fear he will take a punter and a swarm of 250 lbs speed-rushers instead. Maybe we should all just go back to bed?
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Bears getting a QB doubles down Packers draft
So the Bears have a legit QB in Jay Culter. Sure he owns a 17-20 career record, but his stats and his play shows he's got a better arm than Orton. The price was high but the chances that the Cutler gets hurt or underperforms are probably less than than mid-first round picks ending up being of the ilk of Ahmad Carroll or Justin Harrell. Culter could be a thorn in the Packers' side as long as Favre was in the Bears.
One of the unintended consequences of giving up on Brett Favre a year before Brett Favre himself through in the towel was to give Bus Cook some experience extricating unhappy and unwanted QBs from their contracts. Comments on Sportsbubbler and the J/S Packer Plus site show that some Packer fans now deplore Cook more than the agent we all use to agree was Jerk Agent #1, Drew Rosenhaus. How long was it that peace & harmony reigned between Cook, Favre, and the Packer management?
Am I saying that the Bears wouldn't have Culter if Favre hadn't been retired? Of course not. Heck, who knows what Aaron Rodgers would have done if he didn't play last year? Maybe he would have hired a Rosenhaus type and made a run for it? What really matters is that Ted Thompson must hit on some of his high draft picks or any of his draft picks (past, present, and fewture) and put some distance between the Packers and the Bears & Vikings.
However, just because there is no provable causation between the Favre and Cutler trades, it's a fact that Bus Cook had to have acquired some confidence in his ability to move a star QB. There is no denying the law of unintended consequences. Less the Packers fans acquire the former organizational attitude toward QBs of the Bears, let's review the lesson of Jay Cutler and other NFL star QBs. The chances of talks leaking is too great to risk losing a top QB. Sure, I'd love to trade Aaron Rodgers to the Vikings for their next 10 drafts, but only Ditkas and McMillians do that, so why risk disaster? I am glad this has never happened to the Packers in recent history and hope that continues.
Culter cost the Bears 1st rounders this year (#18), next year's 3rd rounder. They will need to hit on a Greg Jennings type #2 pick to fully capitalize. From the Bear's perspective, it's the move they should have made years ago while their defense was still young and receiving corps slightly more serviceable. The Vikings are still hoping they will have a good enough QB.
So while it's likely a good deal for the Bears, but there is a feeling here in Chicago that it's probably too late... "the defense is too old and maybe too rich to be hungry... but maybe not... wait until football season and we will see... how bout those Cub / Sox?" It has the "fresh air" feel to it that should help the Bears a lot. Yet, to keep things in perspective Culter's QB rating last year, his best so far ranked #23 in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was #12. Who will be better in the long run is clearly an open question.
Quantitatively, the Bears and the Vikings now have to hit more often on their remaining draft picks and the Packers need to hit too but they can afford a few misses. The stakes on the Packers' next few draft, or more accurately their on going player development efforts, have been exponentially raised by these two trades. Love or hate the current GM, if you care about the Packers next ten years or so, we better hope for the best.
If the Packers hold serve in the draft, meaning that they get a few very good starters, a few servicable players, and only a few busts. The Packers could be competative in 2009-10 and pull ahead as the impact of the lost draft choices begin to be more accutely felt in Chicago and Minnesota.
One of the unintended consequences of giving up on Brett Favre a year before Brett Favre himself through in the towel was to give Bus Cook some experience extricating unhappy and unwanted QBs from their contracts. Comments on Sportsbubbler and the J/S Packer Plus site show that some Packer fans now deplore Cook more than the agent we all use to agree was Jerk Agent #1, Drew Rosenhaus. How long was it that peace & harmony reigned between Cook, Favre, and the Packer management?
Am I saying that the Bears wouldn't have Culter if Favre hadn't been retired? Of course not. Heck, who knows what Aaron Rodgers would have done if he didn't play last year? Maybe he would have hired a Rosenhaus type and made a run for it? What really matters is that Ted Thompson must hit on some of his high draft picks or any of his draft picks (past, present, and fewture) and put some distance between the Packers and the Bears & Vikings.
However, just because there is no provable causation between the Favre and Cutler trades, it's a fact that Bus Cook had to have acquired some confidence in his ability to move a star QB. There is no denying the law of unintended consequences. Less the Packers fans acquire the former organizational attitude toward QBs of the Bears, let's review the lesson of Jay Cutler and other NFL star QBs. The chances of talks leaking is too great to risk losing a top QB. Sure, I'd love to trade Aaron Rodgers to the Vikings for their next 10 drafts, but only Ditkas and McMillians do that, so why risk disaster? I am glad this has never happened to the Packers in recent history and hope that continues.
Culter cost the Bears 1st rounders this year (#18), next year's 3rd rounder. They will need to hit on a Greg Jennings type #2 pick to fully capitalize. From the Bear's perspective, it's the move they should have made years ago while their defense was still young and receiving corps slightly more serviceable. The Vikings are still hoping they will have a good enough QB.
So while it's likely a good deal for the Bears, but there is a feeling here in Chicago that it's probably too late... "the defense is too old and maybe too rich to be hungry... but maybe not... wait until football season and we will see... how bout those Cub / Sox?" It has the "fresh air" feel to it that should help the Bears a lot. Yet, to keep things in perspective Culter's QB rating last year, his best so far ranked #23 in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was #12. Who will be better in the long run is clearly an open question.
Quantitatively, the Bears and the Vikings now have to hit more often on their remaining draft picks and the Packers need to hit too but they can afford a few misses. The stakes on the Packers' next few draft, or more accurately their on going player development efforts, have been exponentially raised by these two trades. Love or hate the current GM, if you care about the Packers next ten years or so, we better hope for the best.
If the Packers hold serve in the draft, meaning that they get a few very good starters, a few servicable players, and only a few busts. The Packers could be competative in 2009-10 and pull ahead as the impact of the lost draft choices begin to be more accutely felt in Chicago and Minnesota.
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