Where Are Top DT Drafted?

In the last 10 NFL drafts, the average draft position of the first defensive tackle was 9.1. B.J. Raji was universially proclaimed the best defensive tackle in the draft, so the Packers did not "reach" according to this metric.

In the last 10 NFL drafts, 19 defensive tackles have been selected in the first 16 picks. Let's give their career a label:

Pro Bowler
Starter
Journeyman
Bust
Too Early to Say (1998 picks)

This is nominative since you could consider anything less than a starter a bust when taking with a top 16 pick, but since the there was a discernable difference, I have made this distinction between a player who contributes and one who doesn't.

Pro Bowlers (25%)
Tommie Harris
John Henderson
Richard Seymour
Corey Simon

Starters (37%):
Amobi Okoye
Adam Carriker
Haloti Ngata
Brodrick Bunkley
Travis Johnson
Dewayne Robertson
Anthony McFarland

Journeymen (19%):
Jimmy Kennedy
Ryan Sims
Gerard Warren

Busts (19%)
Justin Harrell
Johnathan Sullivan
Wendell Bryant

Too Early to Say (2):
Glenn Dorsey
Sedrick Ellis

So there is a 38% chance B.J. Raji will stink, a 25% chance he will be great, and a 37% chance he will be ok. I think he will fall into the starter catagory and at this key position in the defense that might be enough to help the Packers. Hopefully, his career will be long like Anthony McFarland's and will spend it in Green & Gold.